Forex 20/September 2012 Forecast

EURSD

EURUSD could not overcome 1.3083 (R1) and fell breaking below the psychological level of 1.3015 (S1), triggering our short positions targeting 1.2930 (S2). The euro came under pressure this morning after disappointed data from EMU (Construction Output came negative) as the German DAX30, the FrenchCAC40 and Italian FTSE are showing bearish movements the last 2 days falling at almost -0.17% and -0.35% range. Fundamentally, we look towards the US Session where MBA Mortgage Applications are due at 11:00 GMT, House Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 GMT, while Existing Homes Sales is due at 14:00 GMT.


GBPUSD

GBPUSD – The last month the pair continued its impressive upwards trend, reaching a high this week at 1.6273 (R1), a level that has been retested twice without bulls managing to break above it. Following that, the pair fell almost a 50 pips after retesting 1.6204 (S1), with a clear sign of declines as sellers aiming to breach the uptrend trendline that lies at 1.6124 (S2). Therefore, as far as the price moves above the psychological level of 1.6204 (S1), it increases the chances to retest again the 1.6273 (R1), with possibilities to continue the bullish trend.

USDJPY

USDJPY reached as high as 79.22 due to BOJ decision to hold rate at 0.1% and to extend its APP programme. Following that, the pair made a sharp move downwards breaking below 79.00 (S1), today’s first support level. USDJPY is now trading at 78.90 with next support at 78.45 (S2) followed by 78.00 (S3). On the upside, key resistance remains at 79.65 (R1).

EURJPY

EURJPY in under selling pressure as this morning price fell from 103.70 towards our first support at 102.37 (S1). We remain flat on EURJPY waiting the final reaction of the price. A break above 103.85 (R1) would confirm the bullish trend, while a break below 102.37 (S1), would open the doors for a full retracement towards 101.62 (S1).

OIL

OIL is attempting to retest 94.21 (S1), as this morning came under bearish pressure falling from 95.80. Our support levels lies at 94.21 (S1) and 92.84 (S2) while resistance levels can be found at 98.28 (R1) and 100.38 (R2). For now, the price has created a strong support level at 94.21 (S1) as the price retested that level 5 times since mid August (Aug 15th).

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